“Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
In addition, a recent paper published in Nature Climate Change finds that the models did not predict 'hiatus' periods greater than 5 years. Thus, the new IPCC claim that “Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common” for the climate model simulations is contradicted by the literature. The climate models have been falsified by observations at a confidence level of 95% per the NOAA requirements, as well as two recent papers falsifying the models at a confidence levels of >98% over the past 15 years and 90% over the past 20 years.
Since almost the entire IPCC report hinges on the output of climate models, the entire report and its Summary for Policymakers are invalidated prior to publication. Every single one of the 73 IPCC climate models in the upcoming report exaggerate global warming. Even the IPCC admits the models have not been validated and that they don't know how to validate the models.
Related: Dr. Judith Curry: Well, I am afraid I must conclude that the IPCC “has no idea what’s going on“.
Reuters:
A “hiatus” in global warming so far this century is partly caused by natural variations in a chaotic climate and is unlikely to last, a draft United Nations report by leading climate scientists says.
The 127-page draft, and a shorter summary for policymakers that is due for release in Stockholm on September 27 after editing, say factors including a haze of volcanic ash and a cyclical dip in energy emitted from the sun may also have contributed to a slower warming trend…
“Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common” in both historical records and in computer models, the technical summary says. But scientists were caught out – in one computer model, 111 of 114 estimates over-stated recent temperature rises.
UK newspaper The Independent:
Climate change 'hiatus': Scientists seek to qualify evidence of apparent global warming slowdown
International panel fear sceptics will pounce on data that suggests global warming has decreased since 1998, despite rising greenhouse gas emissions
JOSEPH CHARLTON FRIDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2013 The Independent
Authors of a landmark UN report on climate change remain adamant that humans are heating up the planet by burning fossil fuels and cutting down CO2-absorbing forests, despite data from the report suggesting a purported slowdown in global warming over the past 15 years.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) full 127-page document - due for release in Stockholm next week - is expected to suggest the link between human activity and global warming is clearer than ever, regardless of the recent lower rate of warming.
In a draft leaked in June, the IPCC said that while the rate of warming between 1998 and 2012 was about half the average rate since 1951, the globe is still heating up in the long term.
The leaked report qualified the apparent slowdown by citing natural variables in the climate system, the cooling effects from volcanic eruptions and the fact that an uncommonly hot year was picked as the starting point for the 15-year chart.
“Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15-year global mean surface temperature trends [of the falsified computer models] in the near-term future will be larger than during 1998-2012,” a technical summary from the report said.
“Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common,” it added.
The Associated Press says it has obtained comments made to the IPCC by several governments concerned with how to tackle the apparently anomalous data.
Germany called for the 15 year slowdown to be dismissed as a blip, saying climate change needed to be measured in decades and centuries, rather than smaller intervals.
Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for the statistics, citing the exceptionally warm temperature of the year, while Hungary were concerned the finding would be fodder for global warming sceptics.
Jonathan Lynn, a spokesman for the IPCC, said: “a comprehensive picture of all the science relevant to climate change, including the thousands of pieces of scientific research published since the last report in 2007 up to earlier this year.”
Conclusions reached by the IPCC are significant as they provide the basis for UN discussions on the treatment of CO2 emissions and other greenhouses gases. A global climate treaty is scheduled to be reached in 2015.
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