New paper finds Arctic temperatures peaked before 1950, stable to declining since

A new paper published in Climate of the Past reconstructs temperatures over the past 1100 years from Eastern Arctic ice cores and shows the highest Eastern Arctic temperatures of the 20th century occurred in the 1920's-1940's, followed by a cooling or a warming 'pause' over the remainder of the 20th century. 



Fig. 5a below shows a double peak in proxy temperatures in the 1920's and 1940's followed by cooling to the ice age scare of the 1970's, and temperatures in 2000 below those of the peaks in the 1920's-1940's. Four compilations of meteorological data of the Eastern Arctic in Fig 5b show good agreement to the proxy data.



Figure 6 from the paper shows proxy temperatures began a sharp rise in the late 1700's up the peak in the 1920's, but a declining trend from the 1920's to the end of the record in 2000. 



This is the opposite pattern to what would be expected if man-made greenhouse gases were the cause, as even alarmists claim the increase in greenhouse gases has only had a significant effect since 1950. Instead, this new paper demonstrates Eastern Arctic temperatures peaked in the early 20th century, followed by a declining trend to the end of the record in 2000.

Proxy temperature reconstruction from the paper in graph A, followed by other meteorological data and compilations of the Eastern Arctic.

Clim. Past, 9, 2379-2389, 2013 www.clim-past.net/9/2379/2013/ doi:10.5194/cp-9-2379-2013 Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya)

T. Opel, D. Fritzsche, and H. Meyer

Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. Understanding recent Arctic climate change requires detailed information on past changes, in particular on a regional scale. The extension of the depth–age relation of the Akademii Nauk (AN) ice core from Severnaya Zemlya (SZ) to the last 1100 yr provides new perspectives on past climate fluctuations in the Barents and Kara seas region. Here, we present the easternmost high-resolution ice-core climate proxy records (δ¹⁸O and sodium) from the Arctic. Multi-annual AN δ¹⁸O data as near-surface air-temperature proxies reveal major temperature changes over the last millennium, including the absolute minimum around 1800 and the unprecedented warming to a double-peak maximum in the early 20th century. The long-term cooling trend in δ¹⁸O is related to a decline in summer insolation but also to the growth of the AN ice cap as indicated by decreasing sodium concentrations. Neither a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly nor a Little Ice Age are detectable in the AN δ¹⁸O record. In contrast, there is evidence of several abrupt warming and cooling events, such as in the 15th and 16th centuries, partly accompanied by corresponding changes in sodium concentrations. These abrupt changes are assumed to be related to sea-ice cover variability in the Barents and Kara seas region, which might be caused by shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results indicate a significant impact of internal [natural] climate variability on Arctic climate change in the last millennium.



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