New paper finds natural ocean oscillations control precipitation & climate in North China, not CO2

A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that precipitation in North China is primarily controlled by the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], not anthropogenic climate change. According to the authors, "Approximately 70% of the drying trend during 1960–1990 originates from 50–70-yr multidecadal variability related to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase changes." The authors also find that there has been no significant change in North China precipitation over the 110 years from 1900-2010, indicating that natural variability, not AGW, controls North China precipitation and climate.

Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00235.1

Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900-2010

Cheng Qian

RCE-TEA & LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; & Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou

Tianjun Zhou

LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract

North China has undergone a severe drying trend since the 1950s, but whether this trend is natural variability or anthropogenic change remains unknown due to the short data length. This study extends the analysis of dry–wet changes in North China to 1900–2010 on the basis of self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to detect multidecadal variability. A transition from significant wetting to significant drying is detected around 1959/60. Approximately 70% of the drying trend during 1960–1990 originates from 50–70-yr multidecadal variability related to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase changes. The PDSI in North China is statistically negatively correlated with the PDO index, particularly at the 50–70-yr timescale, and is also stable during 1900-2010. Composite differences between two positive PDO phases (1922–1945 and 1977–2002) and one negative PDO phase (1946–1976) for summer exhibit an anomalous Pacific–Japan/East Asian–Pacific pattern-like teleconnection, which may develop locally in response to the PDO-associated warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo–Pacific Ocean, and meridionally extends from the tropical western Pacific to North China along the East Asia coast. North China is dominated by an anomalous high pressure system at mid–low levels and an anticyclone at 850 hPa, which are favorable for dry conditions. In addition, a weakened land–sea thermal contrast in East Asia from a negative to positive PDO phase also plays a role in the dry conditions in North China by weakening the East Asian summer monsoon.