Analysis finds electric cars depreciate much faster than conventional cars

Depreciation hits electric cars hard

Chris Woodyard, USA TODAY

December 26, 2013

Plug-ins are worth less compared to their original value over five years than conventionals



STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Plug-in cars are projected to depreciate more off their list prices than conventional cars


• Kelley Blue Book projected residual values over five years


• Pure electric cars take a bigger hit than plug-in hybrids

Plug-in electric cars may be cutting-edge technology, but an analysis suggests that most will depreciate more dramatically over five years than their conventional counterparts.

Some of the biggest value gaps involve 2014 models powered only by batteries, entirely without gas engines, according to the analysis performed by Kelley Blue Book at the request of USA TODAY. Examples:

•Chevrolet Spark EV. The little electric is projected to be worth 28% of its $28,305 list price in five years, while a comparable conventional version of the same car will retain 40% of its value.

•Ford Focus Electric. The compact will be worth 20% of its initial $35,995 list price, while a well-outfitted conventional Focus Titanium with an automatic transmission will still command 36%.

•Nissan Leaf. Even the best-selling pure electric car is projected at having a residual value of 15% for the 2013 model. A similar Nissan Sentra SL compact would retain 36%.

"Pure electrics have been slow to catch on in the resale market," says Eric Ibara, director of residual consulting for Kelley Blue Book. Customers "have been willing to buy a new one, not a used electric vehicle."

Indeed, three electric cars — Leaf, Fiat 500e and Smart Fortwo electric — topped the list of models projected by KBB to have the highest depreciation among all cars and trucks for the 2014 model year.

...
As bad as that sounds, there are some mitigating factors. In particular, many buyers are given sales incentives packages and don't pay anywhere near the list price. Some of the biggest discounts come on leases. And many electric cars qualify for a federal tax credit of up to $7,500, plus state or local incentives. Big discounts on new cars hurt residual values.

Plug-in hybrid cars, those with backup gas engines, fair better, KBB reports. For instance, Porsche's new Panamera E-Hybrid has a predicted resale value of 37%, compared with 41% for the conventional model. Toyota's Plug-In Prius has a resale of 35%, only 2 percentage points less than for the conventional version.

Nissan officials note the electric car, or EV, revolution is still in its infancy. The market for used electric cars is yet to develop.

"We expect to see a similar adoption curve for used EVs as we have for new EVs, and we are just now reaching the point where there are used EVs on the market," says Erik Gottfried, director of marketing for Nissan Leaf. "EVs are one of the most active and fast-moving segments of the automotive market."

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US 2013 oil boom is biggest ever, data shows

2013 oil boom is biggest ever, data shows

Posted on  December 26, 2013 at 10:00 pm by Simone Sebastian

HOUSTON — The United States’ average daily oil production is on track to surge by 1 million barrels per day this year, the biggest one-year jump in the nation’s history, according to federal data.

The country has pumped an average of 7.5 million barrels of crude per day in 2013, up from 6.5 million barrels per day in 2012. That breaks last year’s record, when oil production jumped by 837,000 barrels per day between 2011 and 2012.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that oil production will jump by another 1 million barrels per day in 2014, largely buoyed by drilling activity in Texas’ Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin regions, as well as North Dakota’s Bakken Shale.

The Gulf of Mexico also is seeing a boost, with oil production expected to grow to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2014, up by 100,000 barrels.

The hockey stick of US oil production

The data is evidence of the astonishingly rapid turnaround in the nation’s energy story. Oil production declined in 29 of the 40 years between 1971 and 2011. In total, oil production fell by about 40 percent during that time, from 9.5 million barrels per day in 1971 to 5.6 million barrels per day in 2011.

While the U.S. oil boom has sparked conversation of energy independence, Americans consume about 18 million barrels of liquid fuels per day, far more than is produced domestically.

Still, the production surge has caused oil imports to drop considerably. The nation shipped in an average of 7.9 million barrels per day of crude in September, the most recent period for which import data is available. That’s a significant drop from the peak in 2005, when the nation imported an average of 10.1 million barrels per day.

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New paper finds globe was warmer, sea levels rose faster & higher during the last interglacial

A paper published today in the Journal of Quaternary Science notes that during the last interglacial, "global temperatures were 2 °C higher and rates of sea-level rise [greater than 5.6mm/year], leading to sea levels 6.6–9.4 meters [22 to 31 feet] higher than present. The source(s) of this sea-level rise remain fiercely debated."

Thus, during the last interglacial, the globe was naturally 2 °C warmer, sea levels rose 5 times faster than at the present, sea levels were up to 31 feet higher than the present, and Antarctic sea ice was much less than the present, all with "safe" levels of CO2. There is no evidence that climate change within the present interglacial is any different, unprecedented, unnatural, unusual, or due to man-made CO2.


Testing the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean dynamics: past changes and future implications 

CHRISTOPHER J. FOGWILL et al

The stability of Antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain. The Last Interglacial (135,000–116,000 years ago) provides a potential analogue, with global temperatures 2 °C higher and rates of sea-level rise >5.6 m ka−1, leading to sea levels 6.6–9.4 m higher than present. The source(s) of this sea-level rise remain fiercely debated. Here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHWs) on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. We suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub-polar gyres, inducing pervasive warming (0.2–0.8 °C in the upper 1200 m) adjacent to sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which due to their geometries and connectivity to the Southern Ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing. We conclude that the EAIS potentially made a substantial, hitherto unsuspected, contribution to interglacial sea levels, and given 21st-century projections in the Southern Annular Mode and associated SHW migration, we highlight how pervasive circum-Antarctic warming may threaten EAIS stability.

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New paper finds Arctic sea ice extent has increased over the last few centuries

A new paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews finds that reconstructed Arctic sea ice extent has increased over the last few centuries. According to the authors, the only sea ice proxy "records having a resolution suitable to document sea ice cover variations over the last centuries" find that "all records show an increase of the sea ice cover over the last centuries" and "a distinct trend for an increased sea ice cover towards modern values over the last centuries."

Excerpt:

"Records having a resolution suitable to document sea ice cover variations over the last centuries have  been obtained from the Mackenzie slope, the Beaufort Sea (Richerol et al., 2008; Bringué and Rochon, 2012; Durantou et al., 2012), and the Chukchi Shelf (core B5; de Vernal et al., 2008; Kinnard et al., 2011). At the Beaufort Sea sites, the variations are of limited amplitude and the estimates are close to “modern” observations, but all records show an increase of the sea ice cover over the last centuries. At the Chukchi site, the record shows large amplitude variations with a distinct trend for an increased sea ice cover towards modern values over the last centuries."

Dinocyst-based reconstructions of sea ice cover concentration during the Holocene in the Arctic Ocean, the northern North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas

Anne de Vernal et al

Sea ice cover extent expressed in terms of mean annual concentration was reconstructed from the
application of the modern analogue technique to dinocyst assemblages. The use of an updated database, which includes 1492 sites and 66 taxa, yields sea ice concentration estimates with an accuracy of 1.1/10. Holocene reconstructions of sea ice cover were made from dinocyst counts in 35 cores of the northern North Atlantic and Arctic seas. In the Canadian Arctic, the results show high sea ice concentration (>7/10) with little variations throughout the interval. In contrast, in Arctic areas such as the Chukchi Sea and the Barents Sea, the reconstructions show large amplitude variations of sea ice cover suggesting millennial type oscillations with a pacing almost opposite in western vs. eastern Arctic. Other records show tenuous changes with some regionalism either in trends or sea ice cover variability. During the mid-Holocene, and notably at 6 0.5 ka, minimum sea ice concentration is recorded in the eastern Fram Strait, northern Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea. However, this minimum cannot be extrapolated at the scale of the Arctic and circum-Arctic. The comparison of recent observations and reconstructions suggests larger variations in the Arctic sea ice cover during the last decades than throughout the Holocene.

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UK taxpayers spent $49 million this year for wind farms to sit idle

£30 million for wind turbines that don't work when it's windy: Cost is £25 million higher than last year and paid for by household bills

• National Grid is unable to cope with extra power produced
  


• At the start of September, around 40 wind farm firms were paid £2.4 million


• Another windy weekend in August saw £3.1 million handed over


• 
  

By TAMARA COHEN

PUBLISHED: 17:31 EST, 25 December 2013 | UPDATED: 10:56 EST, 26 December 2013  THE DAILY MAIL

Wind farms have been paid a record £30 million this year to stand idle in bad weather.

The cash, which comes from household bills, is paid when the National Grid is unable to cope with the extra power produced during high winds, or during periods of low demand.

The ‘constraint payments’ have reached £30,424,169 this year, compared with last year’s £5million.

Wind farms have been paid £30million this year to shut down in bad weather 

In just one weekend at the start of September, around 40 wind farm firms were paid £2.4million to switch off. The energy they would have produced in that time could have powered up to 10,000 homes.

Another windy weekend in August saw £3.1million handed to energy firms for doing absolutely nothing. Up to 30 wind farms were paid.

John Constable, of the Renewable Energy Foundation charity, which compiled the figures from official data, said: ‘The scale and pricing of wind power constraints in 2013 clearly shows that the full system cost of wind power is much higher than government is willing to admit.

‘Unfortunately, there are no cheap solutions, and, ironically, paying wind farms not to produce energy may actually be cheaper than building more grid.

‘At some point government will have to face the fact that wind power is simply too expensive to provide more than a minor share of UK electricity.’

Under EU law, Britain’s energy consumption from renewables needs to reach 15 per cent by 2020 – meaning thousands more wind turbines may be built. There are already 4,000 on land and a further 1,000 at sea.

Onshore wind farm turbines next to the coal fired Drax Power Station in North Yorkshire

Wind farms – especially those offshore – are heavily subsidised, with ministers saying turbines need public support to help them ‘scale up’.

But Peter Lilley, a Tory MP on the Commons energy and climate change committee, said: ‘Paying wind farm operators not to produce electricity adds insult to injury. It’s an added problem that enthusiasts for wind farms tend to ignore and will increase proportionally the greater the number of wind turbines we subsidise by taking money from the pockets of poor people to subsidise rich landowners.’ 

National Grid said the payments had been higher than in previous years, partly due to weather conditions, but those paid to wind farms only made up a small proportion of all constraint payments.

A spokesman said: ‘National Grid balances the country’s demand and supply minute by minute, and it transports electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed. It can ask generators to come on or off the grid to manage constraints and keep the system balanced.

‘National Grid has a number of tools at its disposal to do that and is incentivised to keep balancing costs down. 

‘The number and relative value of constraint payments made to wind farms is small compared to overall constraint payments made to generators of all types.’

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New paper finds Antarctica had much less sea ice during the last interglacial

A paper published today in Climate of the Past finds Antarctic sea ice extent was much less than the present during the last interglacial period ~120,000 years ago. According to the authors, "During the last interglacial, the [sea ice proxy at 2 sites in Antarctica] are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean."

Prior research has also shown that Antarctic sea ice has markedly increased over past 7000 years since the Holocene Climate Optimum, when temperatures were significantly higher than the present. 

During the last interglacial, sea levels were 31 feet higher than the present, sea ice extent much less than the present, and Greenland was 8C warmer than the present, all with "safe" levels of CO2. There is no evidence the current interglacial is any different. 

Top graph shows temperature proxy from 2 drilling sites. Horizontal axis is thousands of years before the present. Temperatures were higher than the present during the interglacial ~120,000 years ago. Bottom 2 graphs show a proxy for Antarctic sea ice was only about half of Holocene levels. 

Clim. Past, 9, 2789-2807, 2013 www.clim-past.net/9/2789/2013/ doi:10.5194/cp-9-2789-2013 High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

S. Schüpbach^1,2,3, U. Federer^1,2, P. R. Kaufmann^1,2, S. Albani⁴, C. Barbante^3,5, T. F. Stocker^1,2, and H. Fischer<sup>1,2

1</sup>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
²Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
³Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics Department, University of Venice, Venice, Italy
⁴Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
⁵Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes – National Research Council, Venice, Italy



Abstract. In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa²⁺, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa⁺, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa²⁺ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa²⁺ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data.

The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa²⁺ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO₂sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO₂ increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa⁺ [sea ice proxy] levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa⁺ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

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California planning to run on battery power due to unreliable wind & solar energy

Costly renewable energy policies are already set to raise California power costs by $5 billion or 33 percent due to expensive and unreliable wind and solar energy. However, that may be only half of the additional cost, since the "California Public Utilities Commission has called on utilities and private companies to install about $5 billion worth of batteries and other forms of energy storage to help the state power grid cope with the erratic power supplied by wind and solar energy." 

Thus, in total, new renewable sources and the battery capacity necessary to provide reliable electricity may cost $10 billion by 2020, representing about a 66% increase in electricity rates.

Obama: My Plan Makes Electricity Rates Skyrocket

Could Big Batteries Be Big Business In California?

by RICHARD HARRIS NPR
December 23, 2013 3:24 AM

Morning Edition 5 min 18 sec Playlist Download

Strong gusts in Palm Springs, Calif., generate plenty of energy, thanks to turbine farms. But being able to store all that energy is just as important.

The California Public Utilities Commission has called on utilities and private companies to install about $5 billion worth of batteries and other forms of energy storage to help the state power grid cope with the erratic power supplied by wind and solar energy.

The need to store energy has become urgent because the state is planning to get a third of its electricity from renewable sources by the end of the decade. And the shift in strategy could open up some big opportunities for small startups, including one called Stem.

Stem is housed in an abandoned showroom in Millbrae, Calif., just across the highway from San Francisco International Airport. And the company's not just aiming to help the state's power grid.


Storage batteries made by Stem, a Bay Area startup, look like glitzy gym lockers.

"We make a product that reduces electricity bills for businesses," says Tad Glauthier, Stem's vice president for customer development.

In fact, Stem's first priority is to focus on individual businesses. To explain how this works, Glauthier walks over to a couple of large computer monitors hanging on the wall.

"The monitor on the right is showing the electric load from the carwash across the street," he says.

The graph is all over the place. There are lulls when the carwash is waiting for business — punctuated with big spikes when blowers, vacuums and other large pieces of equipment switch on.

"If you look at just the range within the last 15 minutes, that's an incredible amount of volatility," Glauthier says. "The utility has to serve them that electricity."

It turns out the car wash has to pay extra on its electric bill for those periods of high demand. All companies in California get billed for their peak use, as well as their total electricity consumption.

So if the carwash can shave off those power peaks, they can also shave this extra charge from their electric bill.

Here's how Stem does it: When demand spikes, batteries kick in so the company doesn't have to draw so much from the grid.

The battery packs they install in businesses look like glitzy gym lockers, and are controlled by a small computer, connected to the Internet. The computer's job is to decide when a company should be pulling energy from its batteries, rather than from the grid. When the company's energy demand is low, it can recharge the battery.

"With the Stem system, they're not using less power," Glauthier explains. "They're just using power in a more level way."

And by doing that, the company is reducing the part of its bill that's based on peak power usage.

So is Stem simply building a system that allows companies to "game" their electric bills? Glauthier says, no. "You absolutely help the [power grid] system," he says.

But Glauthier may be getting a little ahead of himself here.

"Right now, it does only help the customer," says Haresh Kamath, a battery expert at the Electric Power Research Institute in nearby Palo Alto.

Kamath says batteries will eventually help the state power grid deal with the ups and downs of electricity supplies from wind and solar. But it will take a lot of battery power to make a difference.

That's exactly why the California Public Utilities Commission has called for billions of dollars of energy storage to be installed between now and 2020.

"If you get a small energy storage system in every body's home, or every business, that could have a substantial impact on the grid as a whole," Kamath says. "Of course right now it's difficult to do that because it's a relatively expensive product."

Everybody's hoping that creating this huge demand for batteries will also help drive down the cost.

Batteries can help with short-term power fluctuations — like those created when a cloud passes over a bank of solar panels, for example, or when the air goes still at a particular wind farm. And they can help keep the power grid stable, as operators work to match supply and demand second by second.

Stem is planning to scale up its operations so it can play a role in stabilizing the grid. The grid operator actually pays for that service, so it could be another revenue stream for Stem.

Glauthier says the company has installed just 10 systems so far, but they have 150 more orders in the works. And once they reach a critical mass, they will be able to control all the batteries they install from one central location.

"It's taken us four and a half years to get here, and I think there's another three to four years to go before we're really blowing the doors off," Glauthier says.

And they do have competition, including Tesla Motors, which has teamed up with a solar energy company to get into this business as well.

The race is not simply to refine battery technology, but to invent business models that will make energy storage practical.

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